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Northern Cape Provincial Economic Review

Provincial economy is likely to record growth of 2.84% in 2015 and decline in 2016 to a low growth of 0.37%. This is according to the R&D computations based on the recently published Stats SA GDP figures for the third quarter.  The 2015 GDP forecasted growth of 2.84% to some extent, implies that the provincial economy has not lost its momentum from the 2014 growth wherein it recorded a growth rate of 2.8%.  Also, this anticipated growth (see the annexure, Figure A1 and Table A1), suggests that the provincial economy has shown resilience and cushioned the commodity slump impasse experienced by the world economy in 2015. However, in 2016, the provincial economy is projected to give in to both the exogenous and endogenous factors equally constraining the national economy. This is seen in the low growth projection of 0.37%, wherein it is believed the commodity slump effects will be greatly felt. The declining agricultural sector is furthermore at the back of this low growth projection. 

South Africa and Northern Cape quarterly growth rates 


Source: Projections based on (Statistics South Africa(StatsSA) December, 2016)

According to the quarterly estimates (see figure 5 above), the Northern Cape provincial economy is estimated to have grown by 1.55% compared to the reported 0.24% recorded by the national economy. The 1.55% growth recorded is rather a slowing down of the provincial economy, at the back of a robust second quarter growth of 5.7%, spelling a decline of 73.7%.

Northern Cape Industry estimated contribution and growth - 2015 


The key contributors to the provincial economic growth in 2015, will be mining, construction and finance, with contractions projected for utilities and agriculture sectors. Necessarily these two will be the least contributors to the provincial growth in 2015. Utilities’ projected sectoral performance does not reflect the e burgeoning Renewable Energy sector nor the provincial status of being the Solar Capital of the country.  The anticipated provincial growth will maintain the status quo, of the Northern Cape being the least contributor to the National GDP, with an expected contribution of about 2.24%. 


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